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Making predictions is risky, yet the urge to dive back in is strong for me. The future is daunting due to its uncertainty, prompting myself and many others to seek patterns in the unknown. Hopefully, 2024 will be better than 2023, which saw 11,000 layoffs—unexpected given gaming’s resilience during tough economic times.
This year was unpredictable. The pandemic taught me to view predictions with both hope and dread. It seems there’s no clear path to a perfect future for the gaming industry.
Reflecting on the past, the pandemic disrupted our ability to forecast both life and the game industry. Game companies thrived in 2020 due to lockdowns, but it was challenging to sustain that in 2021. According to Newzoo, the industry even shrank by 5% in 2022 amid console shortages, a return to non-gaming activities, and global crises like the Ukraine invasion and economic instability.
Even though top-reviewed games were launched in 2023, sales did not follow suit. The October 7 attacks on Israel, the Gaza war, and rapid AI advancements raised job concerns. Layoffs continued to grow, and mobile gaming struggled post-Apple’s privacy-focused ad changes.
The industry’s structure will likely shift further due to Microsoft’s $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard, signaling more changes ahead. Social media input has shaped my predictions, and I appreciate all the suggestions from fans and readers. Notably, Shawn Layden humorously predicted the 49ers would win the Super Bowl.
I believe gaming will continue to outperform other entertainment forms. Trends like Hollywood transmedia, the metaverse, Web3, cloud gaming, esports, mixed reality, user-generated content, and innovative new games will breathe new life into the industry. Grand Theft Auto VI, expected in 2025, is a beacon of hope.
Let’s look at some predictions for 2024:
1. Gaming Layoffs Will Continue
It’s likely layoffs will persist in 2024, with economic challenges putting pressure on consumers’ wallets, thereby weakening game demand. Amir Satvat estimates that more layoffs might occur despite finding jobs for over 1,000 gaming professionals through his resources. With current trends and uncertainties around AI impacts and gamer preferences, companies will remain cautious. The entry-level jobs will shift more towards user-generated content on platforms like Roblox, Minecraft, and Fortnite.
2. AI Will Surge
The launch of ChatGPT-3 last year showcased AI’s potential in game development. AI is helping reduce costs significantly, but it may also displace some jobs. Tools are emerging that allow novices to create impressive video and 3D animations from text prompts. Generative AI will enable more dynamic NPC conversations and realistic AI characters. Game startups focusing on AI will attract VC investments, though copyright and labor concerns may disrupt this progress. Hopefully, AI’s impact will benefit games and humanity.
3. Great Games Will Still Emerge
Despite economic woes and layoffs, quality games will continue to make their mark. Investments from venture funds are still in play, supporting the development of fantastic new games. Good games take time, and great teams persist regardless of economic downturns. Titles like Alan Wake 2, Starfield, and the anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI are examples of this enduring trend.
4. Franchise Games Will Dominate
Big companies are prioritizing franchise games over new intellectual properties, as they are safer bets during economic downturns. Games linked to famous IPs like Harry Potter and Spider-Man are easier to develop and market. This trend will likely continue, favoring established franchises over new, unproven ideas.
5. User-Generated Content Will Continue to Grow
AI tools are improving the quality of user-generated content, making it more viable. Platforms like Roblox, Fortnite, and Minecraft will keep thriving, with large development studios and individual creators alike contributing. Modding platforms like Overwolf are also scaling up, enabling a robust UGC ecosystem.
6. Switch 2 Will Be Announced
The seven-year-old Nintendo Switch is due for an upgrade. While Nintendo has kept its plans secret, it’s likely a new console, possibly with enhanced capabilities for games like Call of Duty, will be announced in 2024.
7. Apple Vision Pro Will Debut to Good Reviews but Poor Sales
Apple’s mixed reality headset, the Vision Pro, will launch with high-quality features targeting enterprises. However, with an initial price of $3,500, it will see limited consumer adoption. Over time, as developers create compelling apps and games and costs decrease, it might gain broader appeal.
8. More Consolidation Will Happen
Following Microsoft’s Activision Blizzard deal, more game studios will likely merge to stay competitive. These consolidations will aim to acquire talent and new technologies, potentially leading to a mix of open-source initiatives and walled gardens from the biggest firms.
9. Weakness in China
The Chinese government will continue to tighten gaming regulations, placing constraints on playtime, spending, and monetization methods. This could diminish the market’s value and impact global game startups reliant on Chinese investments. Despite this, approvals for new games might accelerate.
10. Hardware Companies Will Gain an Edge in User Acquisition
Post-Apple’s privacy changes, brands like Samsung are leveraging cloud-enabled ads to reduce friction and improve user acquisition for games. These strategies could give them a competitive advantage over traditional methods.
11. Indies Will Be the Source of Original Gaming Hits
As big companies focus on franchises, independent developers will continue to create fresh and innovative games. Titles like Dave the Diver and upcoming projects from established indie studios will drive originality in the gaming industry.
12. Transmedia Hits Will Continue
Successful game-related shows and movies like The Last of Us and The Super Mario Bros. Movie will inspire more such projects, even if not all will succeed. New adaptations and seasons will keep fans engaged, and while some may fail, the hits will justify continued investments.
Overall, as we move into 2024, the gaming industry faces numerous challenges and exciting opportunities. From economic pressures and layoffs to the transformative potential of AI and indie innovation, there’s much to look forward to in the ever-evolving world of video games.